A Wings look back on 2005
As the 2005 year draws to a close, it’s time to take a look back on the past year. Since this is a Wings hockey blog, I’m going to do a list of the top 3 of the year in a variety of categories with the help of Matt Saler at On the Wings. All categories are in regard to the Detroit Red Wings, not necessarily the NHL, in the year 2005. Feel free to leave comments saying what you would change on these lists!
Top 3 Scary Moments
3. Niklas Kronwall tears his ACL and MCL after what was supposed to be his breakout season
2. Kris Draper gets hit in the face with a puck / Nick Lidstrom gets hit in the face by the puck against the Blue Jackets Dec. 20th
1. Jiri Fischer collapses during a game (On the Wings had in depth coverage of Fischer’s press conference)
Top 3 Games
3. Detroit beat the Washington Capitals after a hard fought game, 4-3
2. Wings beat defending Stanley Cup champs Tampa Bay, 6-3
1. Wings extinguish Flames, 6-3, in Darren McCarty’s first game in Hockeytown on an opposing team
Top 3 Former Wings Moments
3. After a drama filled 2003-2004 season in Detroit, Curtis Joseph moved on to Phoenix, where he is having a good season
2. Dominik Hasek is one of the reasons why Ottawa is the best team in the league. When Hasek has something to prove, he is a hard one to beat.
1. Brett Hull retires after short stint with Phoenix and is now being offered a job with Dallas
Top 3 Goals
3. Pavel Datsyuk’s near end to end goal against Tampa Bay
2. Henrik Zetterberg’s breakaway goal against Pittsburgh
1. Steve Yzerman faking out Devils goaltender Scott Clemmensen earning the final goal of the night
Top 3 Suprising Moments
3. Pavel Datsyuk actually signs with Detroit
2. Manny Legace wins 10 games in October earning a league record and defensive player of the month honors / Darren McCarty signs with the Calgary Flames
1. The Wings go 11-1-0 in October to start off the season with a bang
Top 3 Surprising Players
3. Chris Chelios for being so silently strong at the age of 43 (just 10 PIM since November 6th)
2. Jason Williams suddenly becoming a point machine with 10 goals and 24 assists as of December 30
1. Mikael Samuelsson has a breakout offensive season
Top 3 New Wings
3. Brett Lebda re-joined main roster and is playing very well to help bear the burden of Jiri Fischer’s absence
2. Mikael Samuelsson / Johan Franzen, the “Mule,” doesn’t score a lot but works as hard as anyone on the ice, very solid
1. Mike Babcock comes in as new head coach
Top 3 Team Moments
3. Wings visit Children’s Hospital in Detroit
2. 9 Wings were selected to represent their country in the 2006 Olympics
1. Father and son southeast road trip. While the Wings performance during games on this trip wasn’t solid, both the players and their fathers/mentors got a lot out of this trip.
Top 3 Defensive Players
3. Johan Franzen
2. Chris Chelios
1. Nicklas Lidstrom
Top 3 Offensive Players
3. Jason Williams (34 pts)
2. Henrik Zetterberg / Brendan Shanahan (38 pts)
1. Pavel Datsyuk (42 pts)
Top 3 Players Overall
3. Brendan Shanahan - was on a point tear that was only recently halted
2. Manny Legace - very good when not injured, though it has been a while
1. Henrik Zetterberg - two-way force
Top 3 +/- Ratings
3. Robert Lang / Pavel Datsyuk (+11)
2. Andreas Lilja (+13)
1. Mikael Samuelsson (+16)
Top 3 NHL moments
3. 2005 NHL Draft day / Sid the Kid finally heads to an NHL team.
2. Wayne Gretzky, “The Great One,” becomes head coach of the Pheonix Coyotes.
1. Opening night. Every single NHL team played on October 5, 2005, which is quite a way to start the new season after a yearlong lockout.
Behind the Blog: HockeyAnalysis.com
After quite a break in this feature, Behind the Blog is back. Today we’re asking 15 questions to David Johnson at HockeyAnalysis.com. Whether Johnson is posting his weekly power rankings or daily game predictions, you are sure to take some interest in how these stats predict the outcomes of hockey games. Additionally, Johnson has a formula he developed to determine the most entertaining teams. He also will comment on important events like when the Team Canada roster was announced. The next BtB feature will be posted on Monday, January 2nd, where Jes Golbez at Hockey Rants will be featured.
Q.1 – The first HockeyAnalysis.com post I could find went back to September 13, 2005. What made you decide to create a hockey blog especially one that relied heavily on statistics whether power rankings or daily game predictions?
I have a personal blog at http://www.davidjohnson.ca which I was posting a variety of stuff (including hockey) on a semi-regular basis. Over the summer when the lock-out ended and the free agent frenzy that followed I found that I was posting mostly hockey articles and thus decided to create a hockey specific blog.
The goal of this new website was to provide information that was not found elsewhere and to debunk myths often perpetuated by biased mainstream hockey journalists, particularly those from the Toronto hockey media and about my favourite team, the Maple Leafs. This past summer there was talk in the main stream media about how the Leafs sucked and that McCabe, Kaberle, and everyone else on the team should be bought out and the team should start all over from scratch. Later on many in the Toronto hockey media predicted the Leafs would be horrible, would struggle to score goals and some even predicted they would get as few as 76 points. But any objective analysis of the team could prove otherwise and my goal was to do that. This is where statistics comes in. I believe that proper analysis of statistics is a better way of achieving the truth that some subjective opinion which is more often than not biased or agenda based. And for the most part my analysis has been correct. Toronto isn’t a horrid team, McCabe and Kaberle are excellent defensemen, and Toronto has been able to score goals (7th best in the NHL in fact).
Q.2 – With close to 12,500 visits since November 14, how did you get the word out about HockeyAnalysis.com?
Very early on most of the traffic came to HockeyAnalysis.com from my personal blog. Shortly after that the guys at FantasyHockey.com (which I see you are now a contributor) asked if I wanted to write for their website. I declined since I had just started my own blog and had my own plans for HockeyAnalysis.com but we decided to exchange links and that brought a whole bunch of new visitors. Since then it has slowly grown but I am hoping that it hasn’t maxed out yet.
Q.3 – Who is your favorite hockey team? Why?
I was born and raised just outside of Toronto so my favourite team is the Maple Leafs which makes it fun considering I now live in Ottawa. But I love hockey and am certainly not limited to just watching Leaf games.
Q.4 – Where do you see HockeyAnalysis.com in 5 years? What do you hope to accomplish over that time period?
In an ideal world I would love to be able to get paid to analyse hockey statistics and blog all the time but I am not sure that will happen. More realistically I just hope it will grow in popularity and hopefully also promote the idea of using statistical analysis to evaluate teams and players. I also hope that I can dedicate enough time to it to add some more features in addition to the game predictions and power rankings. I’d love to be able to spend the time to do a player ranking system. Unfortunately the stats I need to do some of the things are not always easily obtained in a database format needed for analysis. If anyone knows where I can get easy access to hockey stats let me know as manually extracting data from NHL box scores found on the web is tedious and very time consuming.
Q.5 – Do you find it challenging to balance work and your website?
Yes, of course. I think all bloggers struggle with this from time to time. But with HockeyAnalysis.com being much more analytical than some other blogs I think it makes it a bit more difficult since the statistical analysis is often more time consuming than posting a game summary or an opinion piece.
Q.6 – How hard was it for you to develop a power ranking equation? Do you have a background that made these rankings less challenging?
I have a BMath degree in computer science and I do a lot of data analysis in my regular work life so my background lends itself to doing this sort of thing. Really, analyzing hockey statistics is really a perfect combination of my work life and the hockey fanatic in me. In developing my power rankings, and the game prediction algorithm, I studied 2002-03 and 2003-04 game results to try and determine which teams won and why. I looked at things like how often the home team won, how often the team with the better offence or defence won, the effect of playing 2 games in 2 nights or 3 games in 4 nights, etc. It was a challenge to sort through all of that and try to figure out what actually means something significant and what is just coincidental. Once I figured that out I developed the formulae for game predictions and power rankings. Next summer I am going to do some more analysis to see if the new rules have changed anything significantly and whether my formulae need adjusting at all. So far things don’t seem to have changed much though so that is a positive sign.
Q.7 – Where do you see the NHL in 10 years? Why?
Probably about where it is now - huge in Canada and popular in some select U.S. markets but well behind other sports such as NFL, NBA, MLB and NASCAR nationally. I just don’t believe that the current leadership at the NHL offices in New York are capable of taking hockey to the next level in the United States. They seem to rely too much on trying to sell gimmicks (like the shootout) instead of just selling the game itself.
Q.8 – What is your current “success†rate with your game predictions?
I rank my predictions as strong, good and some confidence levels and then a pick-em category for games that are too close to call. As of game games through December 20th my success rate is:
Strong: 71 of 99 – 71.7%
Good: 88 of 134 – 65.7%
Some: 61 of 107 – 57.0%
Not bad but I would really like to see the ‘Some’ category rise above 60% success rate. It was almost there a while back but has fallen in recent weeks. I am also going to start posting my success rate every Monday from now on so readers can keep track of how things are going. One thing to remember is that these predictions should just be used as a guideline. Things like injuries and the use of back up goalies are not factored in by the prediction algorithm and someone with this knowledge should be able to improve on the success rate a bit more.
Q.9 – What are your thoughts on Jeremy Roenick accusing USA Hockey of blackballing him as the reason why he didn’t make the US Olympic team?
Jeremy Roenick is a talker. He loves the attention and loves to stir up controversy. He has done it his whole career so I wouldn’t read too much into his comments. I am sure he realizes he is in the tail end of his career and can’t contribute what he once did but I am also sure that he thinks he can also contribute in a leadership role similar to that of Chris Chelios and because of that he is disappointed. But I don’t think he was blackballed because he didn’t play in the past 2 World Cups as much as the Olympic committee might have been worried about his off ice antics being a potential distraction.
Q.10 – Which team has surprised you the most by their performance thus far? Disappointed you?
The biggest surprise has to be the New York Rangers. Most people predicted them to be last or very close to last in the east but they have done great. A lot of that has to be attributed to Jagr’s play but more importantly I think what the Rangers are doing is perfect evidence of just how important good goaltending is. As good as Ovechkin, Crosby, Svatos and Phaneuf have been this year, Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist is my pick for rookie of the year so far.
The biggest disappoint is probably the Penguins. While I didn’t predict them to make the playoffs like many people did, I didn’t expect them to be this bad either. It’s not just that they are bad, it is that they are bad and seemingly have no direction or focus. Atlanta has been a disappointment too as I had really high hopes for them. But at least for them you can blame it on their goaltending injuries. I had predicted they would make the playoffs and that Kari Lehtonen would be the rookie of the year.
Q.11 – Who is your favorite all time NHL player? Why?
That’s a tough question because I generally don’t pick favourite players. But with that said I really admired Nikolai Borschevsky. He was a small player who played with energy and skill. He also scored some pretty big goals for the Leafs including a few against the Red Wings in the early 1990’s.
Q.12 – When did you attend your first hockey game and who was playing?
The first NHL game I attended was a Leaf game probably around 1984 or 1985 but I don’t remember exactly when or who they were playing.
Q.13 – What are your thoughts on Steve Yzerman and Mario Lemieux bowing out of the 2006 Olympics?
I think it was a very honourable move. Both could see that they couldn’t contribute at the levels they one did so they bowed out to let a new generation of Canadian hockey players take the next step. It’s quite a contrast to Jeremy Roenick.
Q.14 – If you could change one thing about the NHL, what would it be?
Just one thing? Hmmm. How about make me commissioner so I could change a whole bunch of things. If you made me choose just one thing it would be to get rid of the 3 point game (or else make all games worth 3 points). Why some games are worth 2 points and others are worth 3 is just stupid. It was just one of those gimmicks that short sighted management in the NHL head offices thought would somehow spontaneously make hockey a popular sport in non-traditional U.S. markets.
Q.15 – Is there a hockey blog or website that you look up to for inspiration?
There are a number of excellent hockey blogs out there and several that I visit regularly (Hockey Country, James Mirtle, Hockey Rants, Hockey Dirt, The Ice Block and Behind the Jersey of course) but I don’t model my blog to be like any of them. Quite the opposite actually as I generally try to be different to provide information and analysis that isn’t found elsewhere. If anything it is sabermetrics, which is the analysis of baseball statistics, which inspires me the most. I think that studying hockey statistics can add further insight into the game of hockey just as sabermetrics did for baseball.
Any additional comments?
I hope everyone has, is having, or had a very happy holiday season and for those Canadian readers, get out and vote on January 23rd.
Plymouth Whalers 5, Windsor Spitfire 1
I attended the Plymouth Whalers game this afternoon against the Windsor Spitfire at Compuware Arena. The OHL game gave me a chance to see some prospects of the NHL team along with 3714 individuals.
Game Summary
The Whalers decisively beat Windsor, 5-1. It was a pretty good game to watch especially with a few fights in the remaining 10 minutes of the game. In the second period, Windsor had double the amount of shots as Plymouth, yet were down 4-1. At the buzzer, Windsor had outshot Plymouth 39 to 27.
Evan Brophey scored the first goal 3:35 into the first period for the Whalers. The Chicago Blackhawks selected Brophey in the third round, 68th overall. Right wing Jared Boll and captain left wing John Vigilante were given the assists.
Windsor center Cal O’Reilly got the second goal of the game, first for the Spitfire, in the first period to even up the game.
The Whalers notched three goals in the second period by Dan Collins, Zach Shepley, and Jared Boll. All three goals came on the power play. Windsor goalie Anthony Guadagnolo allowed three of nine shots to go in that period.
The final goal of the game was scored 2:23 into the third period by Tom Sestito, assisted by Wes Cunningham and Mike Letizia.
To hear all the latest news regarding the Plymouth Whalers, visit mlive.com’s Whalers weblog.
My Thoughts
I always forget how much I enjoy these games. Great atmosphere and since it’s kid-friendly, adults don’t swear which I appreciate. And the arena is ten minutes from my house, which is a much easier drive then to the Joe in Detroit. Plus, it amazes me that the players are my age and that sweet at hockey. Today was Kid’s Day and I treated my younger brother to the game so he got a free puck and signed poster (which I got in on as well - they had extras). For $10, I got great seats in the second row in the corner where the Whalers shot twice. By the third period, we realized no one was going to be sitting in the row in front of us so we finished the game sitting in the first row.
For slightly less than $50, I got two tickets to the game, a $20 shirt, pop/slush/pretzel, free puck, 2 free signed posters, and parking. Not bad at all for an afternoon of fun with my brother. I took some photos, but I haven’t had time to upload them yet. I do have a bunch of photos from a game last year of the Whalers vs. Sarnia Sting, which had at least 5 or 6 fights. My dad and I took some great photographs, I believe. My dad even took one of a Sting player nailing a Whalers player in the head. You can view those photos here.
Wings December team report
My third Red Wings team report for FantasyHockey.com is up for the month of December. Be sure to check the report out along with the rest of the website.
12/24 Notes
I ended up having some free time so here is a quick post before Christmas!
“It surprised me,” Holmstrom said. “Of course you want to play in the Olympics. I’m really disappointed, for sure. I think I’ve been having a decent year; I’ve scored some goals, my ice time is coming up more,” Holmstrom said. “I don’t know — they know what they get when I’m on the ice — I’m around the net, I do my thing on the power play, and try to screen the goalie. They know what they’re going to get.”Â
Holmstrom found out the news when he read through Sweden’s roster on the Internet and didn’t see his name mentioned. By Thursday night he had cheered up and arranged an impromptu party for himself, Samuelsson, Zetterberg and fellow Swedes Andreas Lilja and Johan Franzen: a restaurant in Chicago served a Scandinavian Christmas dinner. “Herring, ham, glogg (mulled wine), all the Swedish dishes,” Holmstrom said. “It was great.”
“I’ve coached some real good players — he’s the best player I ever coached,” Babcock said. “He’s classy as they come, as humble as they come. This guy just makes people around him better, and that’s the key to having a successful team. He’s the easiest person I’ve ever coached.”Â
Christmas shopping with Jason Williams
George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press interviewed the Wings’ Jason Williams about his Christmas shopping. Here is what he had to say:
Wings forward Jason Williams has most of his Christmas shopping done. He is still debating one present: a trip for his family during the NHL’s two-week Olympic break. He hasn’t decided where he might take them, but said it would “obviously be someplace warm.”Â
What else have you bought? “I got my mom (Debbie) a shawl. It’s like a big overcoat, sweater kind of thing. I want to get her some boots. I want to get my dad (Norm) some dress shoes. And my brother (Daren) said he wanted a pair of skates. I might try to get him something electronic. I might get him that Xbox 360.”
And what about your girlfriend, Julie? “I don’t know. Some boots for her. Probably just a few other small things.”
That’s a pretty normal list. “Yeah, but it all depends on the trip. If the trip doesn’t go through, obviously, I’ll be getting a lot more stuff. I like to try to spoil my parents and my family for Christmas because for years, I was spoiled. I got what I wanted.”
What’s the most expensive Christmas present you bought and for whom? “My dad and my brother, when we purchased the replica (Stanley Cup) rings. Those were $2,500 each. We had to purchase those. That would probably be the most expensive gift. I haven’t done anything real crazy.”
Do you exchange gifts with your teammates? Or do a secret Santa? “No. Some teams might do it, but I’ve never had it done here.”
And what about for yourself? “I’m asking Santa for everything I want. I want the new iPod that you can play videos on. And I want the portable PlayStation. That’s all I want for Christmas.”
12/23 Notes
A few notes from around the league…
CHANGING ON THE FLY - RESULTS FROM RECENT SURVEYS
In early December we asked you who you a few questions about the first quarter of the season. You voted the Pittsburgh Penguins as the biggest disappointment, followed by the Boston Bruins and the St Louis Blues. The biggest surprise according to your votes was the New York Rangers. After the Rangers, you voted the Nashville Predators and Carolina Hurricanes as your biggest surprises of the first quarter of the seasonÂWe also asked you who the favorite was to win the Stanley Cup. The Ottawa Senators were the overwhelming choice with nearly sixty-four percent of panelists casting their vote for the Senators. Canadian respondents were even more convinced as eighty-three percent of panelists from Canada voted for Ottawa. The Detroit Red Wings were the second most popular choice overall with fourteen percent of the votes, followed by the Philadelphia Flyers with four percent.
In the middle of the month we asked you who you a few questions on your favorite NHL player. Steve Yzerman garnered the most votes for favorite active player while the “Great One” - Wayne Gretzky won the vote for favorite player of all time.
I was pleased to see that fans voted Yzerman as their favorite active player out of all the NHL teams; it isn’t just us Detroiters who admire this amazing player.
Housekeeping Notes
I have a few housekeeping notes regarding Behind the Jersey.
Schneider & Chelios selected to US Olympic team
Two current Red Wings players, Mathieu Schneider and Chris Chelios, were selected to the US team for the 2006 Winter Olympics in Italy. This time around with be Chelios’ fourth Olympics (1984, 1998, 2002) in his 44 years, two of those times he was named captain of the American squad. “I feel very lucky at my age and am looking forward to the challenge,” Chelios said.
Wings GM Ken Holland told Chelios yesterday that he had been selected to the team.
“There’s no doubt the intangibles Chris Chelios brings to any team have to be discussed,” said Holland. “We brought him back for his ability to play, but also because of his leadership and competitiveness. When he’s on your team, he believes your team is going to win, and he has an impact on the players around him.”Â
Schneider has played in one other Winter Olympics back in 1998. He seemed to be a sure selection for this Olympic squad with his 28 points in 23 games placing him fourth among NHL defensemen. He is second among defensemen in scoring (10) and power play goals (7). Schneider also averages 24:05 of ice time
“With his ability to skate and handle the puck … the way he played two years ago and this year, it became pretty obvious that he had to be on the team,” Holland said.Â
GM of the US Olympic team, Don Waddell, is pleased with his defensive selections including former Wing, Derian Hatcher, and former MSU player John-Michael Liles. “We think our depth on defense is as good as it’s ever been,” Waddell said.
Gretzky’s mother passes away
Phyllis Gretzky died two nights after Wayne Gretzky returned home to be with her. She was suffering from lung cancer and passed away Monday night. It is not known if or when Gretzky will return to coach the Phoenix Coyotes or continue to direct Canada’s Olympic hockey squad. My prayers are with the Gretzky family.