Calgary vs. Detroit matchup preview
As I mentioned last night, the Detroit Red Wings will play the #8 seed, the Calgary Flames, in the first round of the playoffs. The schedule has not yet been released, but GM Ken Holland said that NBC wants the Wings to play on Sunday so our first game will be either Thursday or Friday. My big concern in that regard is that NBC will want an early afternoon game and aside from yesterday’s game against Chicago, the Wings suck at early afternoon games. [Update: The Wings’ second game will be played on Sunday at 1pm in Detroit.]
So how will these two teams matchup? Most people will probably pick Calgary to win based on (1) the Wings’ most recent playoff performances and (2) that the Flames have fought their way into a playoff spot and have some momentum heading into the playoffs. I’m praying and believing that the Wings have what it takes this postseason to beat Calgary in the first round. I doubt that either team would pull off a sweep so I expect it to go 5-6 games, most likely 6.
Calgary Flames
Dave at Gorilla Crouch compared the number of road and home wins for both teams. As many fans know, the Flames have not played well on the road this season although they did win some key games on the road coming down the stretch. They only have 13 road wins compared to Detroit’s 21 and Calgary only has one more win at home than the Wings. The biggest problem for the Wings will probably be keeping that home advantage. Once the Flames beat the Wings, they’ll take that home advantage where they play the best and could really do some damage to our team.
Dave also wonders if the Wings can win on the road in Western Canada where their play has suffered all season:
I think Calgary is clearly capable of winning at least one game in this series on the road. Can the Wings claim a game in Alberta?
The odds don’t look good. Detroit has played 6 games in western Canada. They have won one of those games, a 3-2 victory over Vancouver on November 14. However Detroit played the Flames tough on March 20, losing 2-1. My sense is that the pressure is on Detroit to hold serve at home. They are really going to have their work cut out for them if they lose a game at home and have to count on winning a game in Calgary to win the series.
The Flames will definitely be a tough opponent and hopefully this will be an exciting playoff series. I’m predicting a Wings series win in six games, but it easily could go the other way.
For all you Wings’ fans who visit this website, here are some Calgary blogs you should check out during our playoff run:
- Battle of Alberta
- Double Dion
- Five Hole Fanatics
- Flames Blog
- Hit the Post
- Open Ice Hits
- Red Mile
If I missed a Flames’ blogger, let me know and I’ll put your link up here.
How do the two teams stack up in net?
Aside from the home advantage, goaltending will be the most important aspect of this playoff series. The Wings need Dominik Hasek to be his Dominator self especially if the Flames’ Mikka Kiprusoff gets hot. Last season, the Edmonton Oilers’ Dwayne Roloson played fantastic and the Wings struggled to get anything past him. Plus, it didn’t help that Manny Legace wasn’t fantastic (I’m not placing sole blame on him for our series loss however). When Legace wasn’t playing well, the Wings couldn’t turn to Chris Osgood in net because he was out with an injury. Fortunately for us this season, Osgood has been playing really well of late and both goaltenders are healthy so if we need Ozzie, we’ve got him.
Kipper is 12th in the league with a 2.46 GAA while Hasek is second best at 2.05 GAA. However, Kiprusoff has a better save percentage (.917) placing him ninth in the NHL with the Dominator four back with a .913 save percentage. Hasek has eight shutouts this season (only behind New Jersey’s Martin Brodeur) and Kipper has one less shutout at seven.
Hopefully Hasek’s groin and thigh will stay okay and that only allowing him to play 56 games this season will help him during the playoff run. Kipper, on the other hand, has played all but eight games for the Flames (behind only Brodeur and Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo). Despite Kipper playing 18 more games than Hasek, he only has two more wins this season.
Due to Detroit’s defense and the fact he hasn’t played as many games, Hasek has faced a significantly lower amount of shots than Kipper. Kiprusoff has actually faced more shots than any goaltender with 2190 shots this season. Hasek only faced 1309 shots this season, 59.78% less than Kipper.
A very interesting stat to look at is the number of PIM that both goalies have from this regular season. Unfortunately, Hasek has the tendency to flop around in the crease to try to draw penalties and it usually hurts the team. He actually has 20 PIM this season, fifth in the league. Kiprusoff has only 2 PIM, 45th in the league, and he’s played 18 more games. It’ll be very important for Hasek to maintain his focus and temper to prevent unnecessary penalties.
If Hasek was younger, he’d be the better goaltender of the two. Even with his age (42), I believe Hasek can play at the same level as Kiprusoff and could even elevate it with the Stanley Cup on the line. His past two seasons, his groin didn’t make it to the playoffs so the last time he played in the postseason, he won the Cup with Detroit in 2002. I feel much better with Hasek in net than Legace for the playoffs assuming he continues to stay healthy.
I can’t really give an edge to either team in terms of goaltending, but I guess I’ll have to go with Kiprusoff just because he doesn’t have any injury problems and if Hasek goes down, that would really hurt Detroit’s chances even with Osgood’s great play of late.
Leading men…
While goaltending is obviously critical to a team’s success in the playoffs, a team can also hurt when their top line can’t score.
Calgary’s best man offensively speaking is captain Jarome Iginla. Even with an MCL injury that caused him to miss at least a month (I believe), he still has 94 points which is the 12th highest in the league. He scored 39 goals and notched 55 assists this season.
Detroit’s biggest source of offense has been Pavel Datsyuk, who has 87 points (27 goals, 60 assists) this year. He started off the season pretty slow, but once head coach Mike Babcock reunited him with Henrik Zetterberg on the top line, he’s been consistently providing offensive points. His partner in crime, Zetterberg, has missed the last 19 games of the season, but Datsyuk didn’t drop off in points. He actually went on a career best point streak showing that he can help carry the offensive burden in the midst of others’ injuries.
Unfortunately, he has yet to prove himself in the playoffs. His last postseason goal actually game in the 2002 Stanley Cup run. Admittedly, he was injured last year and wasn’t ready to play in the first round so hopefully we’ll see a different Datsyuk this time around. With Zetterberg returning for the first round but still not 100%, it’s going to be important for Datsyuk to continue producing. The Wings can’t afford for him to go on a scoring drought to start off the playoffs.
I give the edge to Iginla because he’s a more physical player and is more likely to stay productive in the playoffs than Datsyuk (in my mind). Iginla has played in three playoff series since 1995-1996 and has scored 19 goals and notched 13 assists in his 35 playoff goals. Datsyuk doesn’t do quite so well when others are playing physically against him. He only has slightly more playoff experience than Iginla with 42 playoff games under his belt, but he only has 3 goals and 12 assists. Plus, Iginla is the heart and soul of the Flames’ squad so his leadership is more important to the Flames than Datsyuk in my opinion.
Special Teams
Interestingly enough, the two teams are pretty evenly matched on special teams. Detroit’s power play is 22nd in the league with only 17.1% effectiveness. However, their penalty kills is the 9th best in the NHL as they kill off 84.6% of their penalties. Calgary has the 10th best power play at 18.4% and comes in at #22 in the penalty kill with a 80.4% success rate.
Calgary has been shorthanded 409 times this season. Detroit? 408 times.
Detroit has had 398 power play opportunities. Calgary? 397.
I’m going to give the slight edge to Detroit in this category, but they are pretty equal in the sense that Calgary is good on the PP while Detroit is good on the penalty kill. Detroit’s power play isn’t as effective, but neither is Calgary’s penalty kill.
Injuries?
You have to give the edge to the Calgary Flames in this department. As of right now, they have no significant injuries that I know of. [Update: I went by TSN when I said no significant injuries. After a comment from Paul and further ‘research,’ this is not the case. I still feel that the Wings’ are worse off with injuries in terms of how important our injured players are to our team’s success, but the Flames do have some injury problems of their own. Robyn Regehr, Jeff Friesen, and Darren McCarty have all been suffering injuries. McCarty hasn’t played that big of a role for the Flames this year, but has been out after a sport hernia operation. As of yesterday, Globe and Mail listed Regehr as day to day with a leg injury. Friesen is also listed day to day with a torso injury. Thanks Paul for the correction.]
The Wings, on the other hand, lost a top four defenseman in Niklas Kronwall who is out with a broken sacrum and will only return if the Wings make it to the Stanley Cup finals. Additionally, Henrik Zetterberg is not quite 100% yet from an inflamed disc in his back and is only returning to play because it’s the playoffs. Todd Bertuzzi only played a few games after back surgery before straining his neck and suffering a minor concussion after colliding into Chris Osgood. While both Hank and Bertuzzi will return for the playoffs, they haven’t had much game experience in the latter half of the season.
Past Playoffs
Both the Flames and Wings failed to make it into the second round last year.
In the 2003-2004 playoffs, the Flames actually ousted Detroit in the second round. It was in that playoff series that captain Steve Yzerman suffered his severe eye injury. Calgary went on to the Stanley Cup finals.
Detroit ran into problems against Anaheim in the first round of the 2002-2003 playoffs and failed to make it into the second round after being swept in four games. The Ducks played in the Stanley Cup finals. Calgary failed to make the playoffs that season.
In the 2001-2002 season, Detroit won the Stanley Cup. Calgary didn’t even make the playoffs.
Even though Calgary didn’t make the playoffs from 2001-2003, I still have to give them the edge as they did beat Detroit in the 2003-2004 postseason.
Detroit bloggers
For any Flames’ fans who are visiting BTJ, be sure to check out the following Detroit Red Wings blogs/forums:
- Abel to Yzerman
- Gloveside
- Gorilla Crouch
- Kukla’s Korner
- Lets Go Wings
- No Pun Intended
- On the Wings
- Red Wings Central
- Snapshots
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7 Responses to “Calgary vs. Detroit matchup preview”
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April 9th, 2007 at 8:33 am
[…] Christy over at Behind the Jersey has a thorough series preview. I agree with her that goaltending will be a huge factor in this series: [Miika Kiprusoff] is 12th in the league with a 2.46 GAA while Hasek is second best at 2.05 GAA. However, Kiprusoff has a better save percentage (.917) placing him ninth in the NHL with the Dominator four back with a .913 save percentage. Hasek has eight shutouts this season (only behind New Jersey’s Martin Brodeur) and Kipper has one less shutout at seven. … Due to Detroit’s defense and the fact he hasn’t played as many games, Hasek has faced a significantly lower amount of shots than Kipper. Kiprusoff has actually faced more shots than any goaltender with 2190 shots this season. Hasek only faced 1309 shots this season, 59.78% less than Kipper. […]
April 9th, 2007 at 10:59 am
[…] Christy has a good preview of the Wings/Flames first round matchup posted. Be sure to check it out. […]
April 9th, 2007 at 2:56 pm
“the Flames have fought their way into a playoff spot and have some momentum heading into the playoffs.”
Um, what? They lost their last four, and in the last 13 were 6-7. I wouldn’t call that momentum. They backed into the playoffs, and reading some of their local newspapers’ articles there are a lot of questions about that fact.
April 9th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
“You have to give the edge to the Calgary Flames in this department. As of right now, they have no significant injuries that I know of.”
Robyn Regehr, Jeff Friesen, and Darren McCarty. Pretty significant if you ask me.
April 10th, 2007 at 9:24 am
[…] Christy at Behind The Jersey compares the Calgary versus Detroit match-up. […]
April 10th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
Robyn Regehr, Jeff Friesen, and Darren McCarty. Pretty significant if you ask me.
Regehr, absolutely. Friesen and McCarty? They’ve been mostly spare parts.
April 12th, 2007 at 5:43 am
[…] Wings bloggers: Behind the Jersey Abel to Yzerman Gorilla Crouch […]