BTJ 2008-2009 Season Preview
Later today, the Detroit Red Wings begin their 2008-2009 regular season. Finally! Despite having the shortest off-season this year, it seems like we had to go forever without hockey so it’s always exciting for it to start back up again. As Red Wings fans, we have a lot to be excited about. For starters, we get to watch the banner ceremony tonight as the Wings celebrate their eleventh Stanley Cup win in franchise history. The entire 2007-2008 team will be in attendance including recently retired goaltender Dominik Hasek and forward Dallas Drake. Now, this may be the awkward part for Marian Hossa, but hopefully he’ll get one of his own after this season. All the fans in attendance will receive a replica banner courtesy of Bank of America. So fans, players, and staff will be in a celebratory mood tonight and what better way to start off the season.
So the Wings lost two players. Period. And that was to retirement. And I don’t think any of us minded that these players actually retired. Our new additions include two former Pittsburgh players, backup goaltender Ty Conklin and a certain Marian Hossa. I don’t know if you’ve heard of him or not, but he’s apparently supposed to be pretty good. Now he is facing the possible Sports Illustrated jinx and the great expectations Wings fans have of a back-to-back championship, but I think Hossa is up for the challenge. Do I think he’ll have the same production level as he did with Atlanta last year? Not necessarily. Partnering with Pavel Datsyuk and Tomas Holmstrom may boost his point totals, but they don’t have to. The joy of the Detroit Red Wings is that we have so many great players that we don’t have to rely on one player for our offense. I mean some of our third liners could possibly be on another team’s first line. That’s depth my friends. Hossa doesn’t have to have a career season for the Wings to succeed. All we need from him is chemistry with Datsyuk so that Henrik Zetterberg can actually center the second line for most of the season. If we can get two ridiculous lines rolling with consistent offensive production, our team is going to scare the opposition.
Everyone else has made their predictions so what are my predictions for this season? I believe Detroit will win it again. I’m almost afraid to say it and (1) sound cocky or (2) jinx it, but on paper I believe our team is hands-down the best. Now a lot has to go right for the Wings to win it again. An injury or two to key players around playoff time would make a repeat pretty hard or impossible (if a certain Swede went down). But outside of that, I believe we have the right head coach and team mindset to ensure that we don’t have the Stanley Cup hangover. Hossa came to win the Cup. While we’d love to have him back next season, the cap is going to make it pretty challenging for GM Ken Holland to get him to stay and re-sign Zetterberg AND Johan Franzen. Holland has stated that we have a one-year window with this lineup. Drake’s presence in the roster was a huge motivating factor to the team come playoff time. I believe Hossa’s presence can do the same thing. He wants to win it. Bad. He was willing to give up tens of millions of dollars for a shot at the Cup. I would say that’s good enough motivation. Will there be challenges this season? There always are. But if any team can overcome the hangover, Detroit can. They were the last ones to do it in 1997 and 1998 and I believe they can do it again.
In terms of the Central, I think the Chicago Blackhawks will once again be a thorn in our side and even make the playoffs this year (hopefully they won’t be our first round opponent). Chicago was only three points out of the playoffs last season and I believe the improvements they have made this off-season (Campbell and Huet) will push them into the postseason. I even think Nashville could squeak in depending on how close the Western Conference race is this season.
While I was happy to see former assistant coach Todd McLellan get promoted to a head coaching position, he’s going to make the San Jose Sharks more of a challenge for us this season. This year, we were fortunate to not play them or the Anaheim Ducks in the postseason. While I hope that holds true this year as well, I think we’ll see the Sharks in the Western Conference Finals.
In the East, I’m going with the Cinderella pick of the Washington Capitals. A bit crazy, but I love the energized fan base over there and Alexander Ovechkin has a better supporting cast around him. It would be too easy to pick the Montreal Canadiens, although winning the Cup in the franchise’s 100th year would be a great storyline. And I know Penguins fans won’t agree with me, but I don’t think the Penguins will return to the Finals. They certainly are still a great team, but they lost a lot of solid players this off-season and then a couple key players got some injuries to start the season off so I’m not going to pick them for the Finals.
When it comes to Red Wings player predictions, here are my thoughts:
- Breakout season: Valtteri Filppula. He is likely going to be centering the third line (with Dan Cleary and Mikael Samuelsson) and has a chance to really prove himself this season. However, he could always get bumped up to Zetterberg’s line and if that’s the case, I expect his offensive production to really jump.
- Proving it’s not a fluke: Johan Franzen & Niklas Kronwall. Franzen started off last season scoring like crazy before a leg injury took him out. He regained his offensive production in the final quarter of the season and would’ve won the Conn Smythe had it not been for a head injury. I think we’ll see Franzen consistently scoring like crazy in his contract year. Last season, we finally saw the Niklas Kronwall that management had predicted. Kronner kept getting injured in prior years and we never got a full season of his play. We finally did and we loved it. He’s a physical player reminiscent of Vladimir Konstantinov. Big hits (yes, he does leave his feet sometimes, I know) with an offensive touch. I think we’ll see more of this from Kronner now that he will be paired with Brad Stuart all season.
- Biggest worry: Goaltending. Fortunately for Detroit, our goaltenders don’t usually have to win games for us. We need them to be good and sometimes great, but we usually don’t need outstanding performances night after night. Our weakest area has to be goaltending with Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin. If they can share the load (Ozzie is looking at 55 games, Conklin 27 or so) and stay healthy, I think we’re good. If either one gets injured for a lengthier period of time, that could be a problem for our team.
- GR Player: If a forward on the Wings goes down with an injury, look for Ville Leino to make the lineup. He was the Finnish Elite League MVP that Detroit signed shortly after Fabian Brunnstrom signed with Dallas. He was fourth in offensive production this preseason and has the nose for the net according to Babcock. Hopefully some time in the AHL will help him quickly adjust to the North American style of play. The Wings’ depth is crazy so there are a lot of other exciting players to watch for in GR. Enough to actually make me want to drive to GR to take in a game.
Well, those are my thoughts on the upcoming season. What do you think about the season?
Puck drops tonight at 7pm on Versus. Go Wings!
Wings create their own blue ocean
I recently started reading a book entitled Blue Ocean Strategy, which is a book that discusses and explains the importance of competing in blue oceans instead of red oceans in the business world. Before I relate to how this got me thinking about the Red Wings, let me first explain the differences between red and blue oceans.
“In the red oceans, industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known. Here, companies try to outperform their rivals to grab a greater share of existing demand. As the market space gets crowded, prospects for profits and growth are reduced. Products become commodities, and cutthroat competition turns the red ocean bloody.” [p. 4]
Essentially, red oceans are industries that already have rules and constraining factors. You have to compete with others in the industry to gain greater market share whether it’s by lowering the price or increasing the quality. However, you can offer a product at a low price with high quality by creating a new market space, which is called a blue ocean. By creating a blue ocean, you are no longer competing with other companies in a specific industry. Instead, you have defined the rules and have something so different that it’s in its own market. According to this book’s authors, you can do this through value innovation.
“Value innovation is the cornerstone of blue ocean strategy. We call it value innovation because instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space.” [p. 12]
The first example provided in the book was Cirque du Soleil. Before that, people could attend the circus or a theatre performance (ex. Broadway show). The creators of Cirque du Soleil took elements that they admired from both of those entertainment options and sold it at an attractive price. They created their own blue ocean to compete in and have reaped the benefits from doing so.
So how does this relate to the Detroit Red Wings? If you view the NHL as a red ocean with teams competing using the same rules and competitive strategies (whether it’s on or off the ice), I am going to argue that the Wings have been so successful over the past 17 years in part because of their ability to create their own blue ocean giving them an advantage over the opponents. Now as another blogger at MarketingProfs points out, this strategy of creating a blue ocean essentially gives the company (or team) a head start. Soon competitors will catch on and try to jump into the ocean eventually turning it red, but giving the original company an unfair advantage.
Since you always take sales away from someone (whether a direct or an indirect competitor), and being that you will always be surrounded by businesses striving to increase sales, once your Blue Ocean Strategy works, sooner or later someone will copy or even improve your already-successful model.
One must credit the writers that they are not blind to this fact. In an interview with W. Chan Kim posted on www.businessinnovationinsider.com on October 2005, he said very openly: “After a while the first copycats will arise, competing on the very same value points as you. That’s completely normal; however it forces the entrepreneur to find a new strategy every several years.”
In other words, the most brilliant BOS will grant you with no more than a limited, relatively peaceful, period of time. Does this mellow promise of the BOS express maximal possible achievement? Naturally, you can guess that my answer is no. Introducing the Unfair Advantage.
Back in the 1980s, the Wings were competing in the red ocean and failing. They were doing so bad that the team became known as the “Dead Wings” and owner Mike Ilitch would give cars away at games and still struggle to sell out the arena. In comes Jimmy Devellano. I believe that his strategy of drafting top talent and making solid acquisitions over the years (including the signing of Scotty Bowman as head coach) is what turned this team around. If you look at their drafting, the team has stayed on the cutting edge competing in their own blue ocean.
First, they targeted Russian/Soviet Union players before it became common or even popular. In 1989, the Wings drafted Sergei Fedorov and Vladimir Konstantinov who would become key components of the Russian Five unit. The unit, which also consisted of Slava Fetisov, Igor Larionov, and Slava Kozlov, defined the Wings style of puck possession play and played a large role in their success in winning the 1997 Stanley Cup after a 42 year drought. The Wings were not the first team to draft a Russian hockey player, but they took considerable risk since there was no agreement in place to ensure that their drafted Russian athletes could actually come to the US. In fact, Fedorov got to the US only after defecting from the CKSA Moscow Team before the 1990 Goodwill Games. Detroit drafted two of the only fourteen Russian players drafted that year out of 252 selections.
After others realized their success, the Wings continued to scout in Russia but also turned their attention to Sweden where they found Nicklas Lidstrom (1989), Tomas Holmstrom (1994), Henrik Zetterberg (1999), Niklas Kronwall (2000), and Johan Franzen (2004). They also brought in fellow Swedes like Mikael Samuelsson and Andreas Lilja to round out the Swedish Seven, who won the 2008 Stanley Cup.
Despite getting low round draft picks, the Wings have used successful scouting to get top talent by looking in places that other teams hadn’t previously gone to or been willing to risk a draft pick on.
Since the Wings have been able to successfully draft top players despite low round draft picks, the organization has a solid foundation and then can add in the missing pieces via free agency like Brian Rafalski and Dallas Drake last season. By having confidence in their home-grown players, the organization can take risks on cheaper journeymen. In a ten-year span, forward Dan Cleary played for four teams including Detroit. Because of Detroit’s success, they didn’t need Cleary to come in and immediately start producing high numbers. Instead, Cleary was able to improve without a ton of pressure on him and he blossomed resulting in a five-year deal with the Wings. Similarly, Brad Stuart was traded to the Wings this year, his fifth team in less than a decade. He just re-signed with the Wings this off-season for another four years after winning the Stanley Cup. Forward Mikael Samuelsson joined Detroit’s roster after spending the past five seasons playing for four other NHL teams. Thanks to their blue ocean strategy, the Wings have been able to sign on risky journeymen-type players who then flourish under the Wings system.
Finish a Free Press cartoon about Wings
Detroit Free Press cartoonist Mike Thompson is asking for readers to submit entries that will finish the cartoon depicted in the image below. The winner will see his/her text in the completed cartoon in Friday’s paper.
Courtesy of the Detroit Free Press
All I could think of was how the commenters at Abel to Yzerman could have a field day with this (although it might not help them win the contest).
What’s your Western Conference picks?
Over at James Mirtle, readers can pick their eight choices to make the Western Conference playoffs next spring. I’ve already casted my own picks so when I looked at the current results, I must admit I was surprised to see the number of votes cast in favor of the Blackhawks.
The Wings had 13% of the votes. Dallas, Anaheim, and San Jose had 12%. The Blackhawks had 11%. That’s 712 votes given to Chicago compared to the 835 votes Detroit received.
Don’t get me wrong, I voted that the Blackhawks would make the playoffs. I’m merely just surprised that after the four “powerhouse” WC teams, the Blackhawks were the next choice by 2%. I guess all the positive changes that the Hawks have made over the past season (hiring Scotty Bowman, signing Huet and Campbell, and the strong future in Toews and Kane) have given NHL fans quite a bit of confidence for the upcoming season. Combine that with the Blackhawks Convention, their Training Camp Fest, and the Winter Classic at Wrigley Field, this should be quite the season for Chicago.
So who do BTJ readers think will make the WC playoffs?
What’s the biggest unknown this upcoming season?
Alright BTJ readers, I want to hear from you on what you think is the biggest unknown or question for the Detroit Red Wings organization this season. This unknown can range any where from ticket sales to the goaltending duo to how Hossa is going to fit into the line-up to the new members of the coaching staff.
George Sipple believes that while the Wings have more legitimate talent than roster spots, there are still numerous questions that need to be answered.
The biggest questions among those projected to make the team are:
• Will forward Tomas Kopecky be ready to play after having surgery on his left knee to repair a torn ACL and MCL?
• Can Jimmy Howard beat out Conklin for the backup job?
• Will forward Johan Franzen build off a breakout 27-goal season, or will his late-season scoring tear prove to be a fluke?
• With a long-term contract in place, will Filppula take the next step offensively and contribute 20-25 goals?
I think the biggest unknown will be if the Wings can convince Hossa to stay on past one season while still fitting Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen under the cap. To do this, the organization needs to show him why they are the classiest team when it comes to treating their players right and show him how perfectly he fits within the team structure.
Leave a comment and tell us what you think the Wings biggest unknown is and why.